If the current trend were to continue, Iran would see a sharp decline in population and face the unfavorable consequences of an aging population like those of many European countries.
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has declared his disagreement with the declining population rate in Iran and announced the general policies for promoting population growth about two months ago.
The Leader, however, said economic growth is a precondition for population growth, calling on the government to improve standards of living to encourage people to have more children.
Since then, the government has introduced incentives such as increasing maternal leave, ensuring working women’s job security after childbirth and providing inexpensive or free of charge hospital care.
Recently, the Ministry of Health announced that pregnant women will be provided with food supplements during pregnancy.
Apart from incentives, the Iranian Parliament has also ratified the outline of a plan, which aims to punish people undergoing birth control surgeries or those encouraging contraceptives, if it gains approval.
Lowest fertility among Muslim nations
“Iran has the lowest fertility level among Muslim countries after Albania,” said Mohammad Es’haqi, the deputy head of the Secretariat of the High Council of Cultural Revolution for planning affairs.
He added that the country’s population dropped significantly after 1992 due to family planning policies that aimed to maintain the population balance.
Noting that all countries are facing challenges of population decline, Es’haqi said he believes economic, social, cultural and security factors are contributing to changes in the population structure of all countries.
He also said the fertility rate of some provinces is below replacement level, adding that measures should be taken to increase the figure.
“Efforts should be made to reach fertility replacement level—the average number of children born per woman at which a population is replaced,” he said.
Es’haqi added that the rising age of marriage and women’s tendency toward higher education are among factors leading to a decline in the total fertility rate of the country.
"The average age of marriage for girls, which was 19 years in 1956, presently stands at 24 years," he said.
He put the current fertility rate of Iran at 1.8, adding that if the new population strategies, adopted by the government, are implemented successfully, the figure will increase to 2.48 percent in the next two or three decades.
“This will help increase Iran’s population to 109 million,” he said.
A member of Health and Treatment Committee of Women’s Cultural and Social Council, Khalil Ali-Mohammadzadeh, said earlier that Iran ranked 23rd among 26 regional countries and 146th among 209 countries in terms of population growth.
Based on family planning policies, launched in 1981, the country’s Total Fertility Rate is expected to drop from 6.4 to 4 in 2006, but in practice the figure reached 3.6 in 1992 which was 14 years earlier than projected.
Consumers will outnumber producers
Dr. Amanollah Qaraei Moqaddam, an Iranian sociologist, said an aging population could increase the costs of a nation, as consumers will outnumber producers.
"The population of Iranian primary school students stood at 17 million until three years ago," he said, adding that this population has declined to 12 million today, showing more couples opting to be childless or have only one child.
Moqaddam, however, said the quality of population is of high importance.
"People must be provided with the opportunity to enjoy wellbeing at a moderate level," he said, noting that four million drug addicts, homeless and unemployed must not be ignored, while planning for population growth.
Moqaddam said people should have access to house, job, hygiene and social wellbeing.
Approaches to population growth
There are four approaches to population growth, the first of which is attributed to Aristotle who believed that population must be fixed at 5,040.
The second approach is based on religious teachings, which promote population growth and is against birth control methods.
The third is Malthus's theory, who urged controls on population growth. The theory says because water and food resources are limited, the population must be limited as well.
The fourth theory believes on a moderate rate of population growth.
Iran is not the only country calling for promoting population growth and introducing incentives to achieve this goal.
However, more investigations are needed to find the reasons behind the decline in population to find the best ways of encouraging couples to have more children.
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Tehran, June 25, IRNA – Thursday edition of the English-language newspaper Iran Daily wrote that population growth has lately become a hot topic of debate in Iran.